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The most common conclusion from last night's NH primary was that a poll
can be wrong even when it is an average of 10 other polls, all with small
margins of error. But I drew a second conclusion from last night's primary,
which was that if Edwards wants change in Washington as he says he does, he
should now quit the race.
Edwards earned less than half the votes that Obama and Clinton each
earned. Edwards is no longer in the top-tier candidate and his chances of
winning the nomination - or the general election - at this point are close
to none because of his narrow message and lack of appeal to independents.
The reason for this is that he has been in the public scene for years
and people know everything about his life. They have also heard his message
of having a radical anti-corporation approach to addressing problems, and
you know what? His message and approach are not resonating with people. If
he was a new candidate with a fresh face, I would have still thought that
he may be able to rebrand himself with a new message and expand his appeal.
But there is nothing more there. He has been in the public arena for years
and there is nothing else about him that can possibly seem refreshing. Over
the past few years, we have seen everything that Edwards has been and can
be, and it is not going to get us the White House.
So then the question becomes, does he mean it when he says this election
is about change and America and not about him? In the NH debate last
Saturday, he made it clear that he found his philosophy of change very
close to Obama's and radically different than Hillary's, whom he referred
to as "forces of status quo." But what he has to acknowledge is
that while his own campaign doesn't seem to be going anywhere at this point
with no money or prospects of raising any, his staying in the race will
only take away votes that would most likely go to Obama and help him win
the nomination over those forces of status quo and establishment.
If John Edwards stays in the race, his chances for winning will most
likely not be any better than they are today. But his very stay will split
the change vote, which would potentially leave Hillary as the winner. So if
Edwards is sincere about doing what's best to bring about fundamental
change, he must now give up his run.
Link to the article on The Huffington Post.
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